Every month, the Conference Board surveys Americans and produces a Consumer Confidence Survey that details how Americans feel about their economic prospects today and into the future.
It captures everything from what people intend to buy, plans for vacations, expectations of inflation, stock prices, and even interest rates. It tries to capture how Americans feel about their present state, known as the Present Situation index, and confidence in the future, known as the Expectations Index.
And the latest figures, from March, showed that Americans were not feeling good about the present or the future.
The Present Situation Index fell by 3.6 points to 134.5.
The Expectations Index fell by 9.6 points to 65.2, which is the lowest it’s been in 12 years which coincides with the Covid pandemic. The index at 80 is sometimes seen as a leading indicator that we’re headed for a recession.
More importantly, according to Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, said “Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022.” Confidence is low and slowly sinking.
“Meanwhile, consumers’ optimism about future income—which had held up quite strongly in the past few months—largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations.”
Don’t let the numbers get you down. These are largely surveys of regular Americans, not necessarily experts on the matter, but it does give you a good sense of how everyday Americans are feeling. Inflation has taken a toll and everyone is feeling the pinch of higher prices. The March survey predated the recent carnage in the stock market, so I suspect future months will share even less rosy figures.
While we can never predict whether we enter a recession, it seems prudent to prepare as if we are going to. And even if the broader economy doesn’t, we may be forced out of a job because of a variety of reasons (not to mention tariffs!). It is important to prepare now.
If you don’t yet have a budget, start using one of these free budgeting apps to identify where you can cut if you need to. Make sure you put your emergency fund in a safe high yield savings account so you maximize yield but put none of it at risk. Finally, avoid major purchases. You want to keep a larger than normal cash cushion just in case.
Consumer confidence may be at lows but by playing a bit of defense, you can give yourself some personal confidence that you can weather potential financial storms.
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About Jim Wang
Jim Wang is a forty-something father of four who is a frequent contributor to Forbes and Vanguard’s Blog. He has also been fortunate to have appeared in the New York Times, Baltimore Sun, Entrepreneur, and Marketplace Money.
Jim has a B.S. in Computer Science and Economics from Carnegie Mellon University, an M.S. in Information Technology – Software Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University, as well as a Masters in Business Administration from Johns Hopkins University. His approach to personal finance is that of an engineer, breaking down complex subjects into bite-sized easily understood concepts that you can use in your daily life.
One of his favorite tools (here’s my treasure chest of tools, everything I use) is Empower Personal Dashboard, which enables him to manage his finances in just 15-minutes each month. They also offer financial planning, such as a Retirement Planning Tool that can tell you if you’re on track to retire when you want. It’s free.
Opinions expressed here are the author’s alone, not those of any bank or financial institution. This content has not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities.
